Best time to buy a phone and when to wait for a deal

Verdict: Wait for the older model or the fall sale season. A new phone holds its price in the first weeks. A one-year-old model is often much cheaper.

Phones follow a clear cycle. A new model arrives, the old one drops, and the new one stays near full price for a while. That makes the best timing less about a calendar date and more about where the model is in its life.

Dates change each year, so use this as a pattern and check the retailer for the current offer.

When are phones usually cheaper?

In general:

• After a new model launches. The previous model is often marked down. This is a common sweet spot.
• Fall sale season. Retailers run deals on many models, but the best offers may be tied to plans or trade-ins.
• Spring. Mid-range models often get cuts when new ones arrive.
• Right after launch. New models rarely drop. Wait a few months if you can.

Ruling: If you do not need the newest features, buy the previous model.

Is a carrier deal a real deal?

Often not. A "free phone" deal usually comes with a long plan and bill credits spread over many months. If you leave early, you may owe the rest. The phone price is hidden in the plan.

Read three things: the length of the plan, what happens if you cancel, and whether the credit applies only on certain plans. Compare against an unlocked phone plus a plan you pick yourself. Terms differ, so read the carrier's own page.

A worked example

These numbers are round and made up. A phone costs $600 unlocked. A carrier offers it "free" with a plan that costs $20 more each month for 24 months. That is $480 more over two years. You also have to stay. The unlocked route may cost $120 less and let you leave when you want.

Ruling: Add up the whole plan cost before you call it free.

What about trade-ins?

Trade-in values vary, and some offers need you to trade a specific model in good shape. Check the condition rules. A damaged phone may be worth far less. Also compare the trade-in value with selling it yourself. Selling takes time but can pay more.

Ruling: Take a trade-in only if it beats what you would get by selling.

Is a refurbished phone worth it?

It can be. Refurbished phones from a maker or a trusted seller are inspected and often come with a warranty. Check the battery health, the return window and what is in the box. Skip refurbished listings from unknown sellers with no returns.

For price checking, use how to check price history before you buy. For the older vs newer question, see last year's model vs the new model.

When should you not wait?

Buy now if your phone is broken or no longer gets security updates. A phone without updates can put your data at risk. Check the maker's support page for how long your model is supported.

What are common mistakes?

• Buying the newest model for features you will not use.
• Skipping case and screen protection.
• Ignoring storage size. Too little storage is a daily annoyance.
• Not checking that the phone works with your carrier.
• Believing "free" without reading the plan.

How do you decide how much phone you need?

Most people use a phone for calls, messages, maps, photos and apps. A mid-range phone does all of that. Extra cost mainly buys camera quality, screen features and speed. Ask what you do daily and which part bothers you. If the answer is battery life or storage, buy for that, not for a brand.

Ruling: Pay for the thing that annoys you now.

What about the plan?

A phone and a plan are two purchases. Compare plans on their own first. Look at data limits, price after promos and fees. Then pick the phone. Terms differ by carrier and change often, so read the carrier's own page.