When to buy toys for Christmas: early or wait

Verdict: Buy the popular one now, wait on the rest. A sold-out toy costs more than a missed discount.

When should you buy toys for Christmas? In general, the one toy at the top of a child's list is worth buying early, because popular toys sell out and prices from third-party sellers can jump. Everything else tends to be heavily promoted in November. Dates change each year, so check the retailer.

What is the rule?

Sort the list into two piles. In pile one, put the toy they truly want and any item with a short supply. Buy it at a fair price. In pile two, put the rest, set a target price from the price-history check and wait for the sales.

Why does waiting work for most toys?

Toys are promoted heavily in the holiday window. Retailers use them to bring in shoppers, so many toys see cuts. The risk is that the best ones run low by December, so waiting is a bet on stock.

The exception

If a toy is a fad item with a long waitlist, skip it if the price is far above the usual. A toy that costs double is not a good gift. Pick something similar and keep the receipt in case it is not a hit. When to buy holiday gifts has a three-pile plan for the whole list.

A quick way to check a toy price

Look up the toy at two other stores and in the price history. If the price is the same for months, a banner changes nothing. If a third-party seller charges far more than the maker's usual price, skip that listing and look again later or pick another toy. Check the age range on the box and the safety labels, and keep the gift receipt. Safety rules and recalls are published by official bodies, so check them for anything for a young child.