Best time to buy a TV, and when to wait

Verdict: Wait for the fall sale season if you can, buy now if the price hits your target. Dates change each year, so check the retailer.

The best time to buy a TV is not a single day. It is two windows. One is the fall shopping season. The other is spring, when new models show up and last year's models get cleared. In both, the saving is usually largest on screens that are one model year old.

Sale dates change each year, so treat the months below as a pattern and check the retailer for the current offer.

When are TVs usually cheaper?

In general:

• Fall sale season. Many stores push TVs hard in the weeks around Black Friday. This is the most common low point of the year.
• Spring model change. Makers tend to release new TVs in the spring. Older models are often marked down to clear shelves.
• Big game weekends. Retailers sometimes run TV sales before major sports events. The size of the cut varies.

Outside these windows, prices are often steady. A TV that is "on sale" in July may be the same price as in June.

Should you buy last year's model?

Usually yes. Screen makers change features each year, but the picture difference between one model year and the next is often small. Last year's model is typically cheaper and has already been reviewed.

Check three things before you commit:

1. The model number or year on the listing.
2. The panel type and the ports you need.
3. The return window, in case the picture is not what you hoped.

Buy last year's model when the saving is meaningful and the specs cover what you will use. Buy the new model when it adds a feature you actually need, such as a port for your game console or a size you could not get before.

How do you set a target price for a TV?

Use the price-history check from how to check price history before you buy. Look at the last 30 days, the last 90 days and the last big event for the exact model. Set your target at the lowest of the three.

A worked example

These numbers are round and made up. A 55 inch TV sits at $500 for three months. Last year's fall event dipped it to $420. Your target is $420. If a November banner says "now $450", it is close but not there. You can wait for a week, or accept a small gap if the return window is long and you want the TV now.

Which sizes and types go on sale most?

Mid-size screens (about 43 to 65 inches) get the most promotions because they sell the most. Very large and very small sizes see fewer cuts. Premium panel types tend to hold their price longer, while basic models drop more often.

If you are choosing a size, think about the room before the sale. A bigger screen on discount is still a bad buy if it does not fit the wall or the viewing distance.

When should you not wait?

Buy now if your current TV has failed or the screen is damaged. A broken TV does not wait for a sale. Also buy now if you see your target price on the model you chose and stock is limited.

Skip the sale if the "deal" is a TV made cheap for the event. These models often have fewer ports and a weaker panel, and the box may carry a name you cannot find in the usual lineup. Compare the model number against the main product line.

For a quick list of other categories, see buy now, wait or skip: November and December verdicts.

Common mistakes

• Buying a size by the sale price instead of the room.
• Forgetting a wall mount, cables or a sound bar in the real cost.
• Ignoring the return window.
• Not checking whether the sale model is the same as the regular one.

What should you check on the day?

Open the exact model on two other stores and in the price chart. Check the shipping date and the delivery fee. Look at the return window and whether you must keep the box. When the TV arrives, test it right away: check every port, play a dark scene and a fast scene, and look for dead pixels. If anything looks wrong, start the return the same day. A TV bought in November with a long holiday return window gives you time to test it properly.

A quick ruling

If you hit your target price on a model you researched and the return window is fair, buy. If the price is only a banner on the usual number, wait for the next window.