Black Friday early deals: are they worth buying or waiting

Verdict: Buy early only at your target price. If it is not at or below your target, wait for the main event.

Black Friday now starts weeks early. Stores announce "early access" and "pre-sale" offers in October and early November. Some are real. Many are a way to get you to spend before the day. The decision is simple: does the price meet your target?

Dates change each year, so check each retailer's own announcement.

Why do stores start early?

Stores compete for your attention and your budget. If you spend in October, you have less to spend later. Early deals also test demand and clear stock. A shopper who feels they might miss out buys sooner.

That does not make early deals bad. It means you need a rule.

Ruling: Do not buy because it is early. Buy because it is at your target.

Which early deals tend to be real?

In general:

• Items with a known sale history. Popular products often have a clear low price from last year.
• Store-brand and basics. Prices change less, so an early deal is close to the real one.
• Items with short stock. Some toys and electronics can sell out. Early may help.

Be careful with items that are made for the event, such as a TV with a name you cannot find in the regular line. See black friday TV deals: same model or sale model.

What is the sale or fake sale checklist?

Ask these yes or no questions:

1. Has this exact model been at this price before?
2. Is the "was" price a price it was actually sold at?
3. Is the deal the same for the whole event, or only a day?
4. Is the return window at least as long as normal?
5. Does the price beat last year's event?
6. Would you buy it at full price?

Three or more "no" answers mean wait. See how to spot a fake sale before you buy.

Ruling: If you cannot answer yes to the first and fifth question, wait.

How do you set your target?

Use the price-history check. Look at the last 30 days, the last 90 days and the last big event for the exact item. Set your target at the lowest of the three. The steps are in how to check price history before you buy.

A worked example

These numbers are round and made up. A pair of headphones is $120 in October. Last year's Black Friday price was $90. An early deal says "$100". It is below $120 but above $90. Wait. If the early price is $90, buy.

Ruling: An early price that beats last year's is a buy.

What about returns?

Holiday return windows are often longer, but not always. An early purchase may have a window that ends before the holiday. Check the store's own page. See returns and price adjustments for holiday sales.

If the price drops after you buy, some stores adjust it. Policies change, so read before you pay.

When does the answer flip?

Buy early if you need the item now, if stock looks low, or if you are travelling and want it to arrive. For items that rarely go on sale, an early deal may be as good as it gets. For a bigger picture of the season, read Black Friday: what is real and what is hype.

What are common mistakes?

• Buying because of an "early access" label.
• Not checking the model number.
• Spending your budget before the main event.
• Forgetting the return window.
• Mixing up a coupon with a price cut.

How should you split the season?

Treat the season as three blocks: early (October to mid-November), main (Black Friday weekend) and late (Cyber Monday and after). Put each wish-list item in the block where it is most likely to hit your target. TVs and laptops often do well in the main block. Small gifts and basics can be fine early. Late is for leftovers and online-only offers.

Ruling: Sort your list by block, then shop in that order.